J Thorac Oncol. 2021 Jul 06. pii: S1556-0864(21)02255-3. [Epub ahead of print]
Beow Y Yeap,
Assunta De Rienzo,
Ritu R Gill,
Michela E Oster,
Mary N Dao,
Nhien T Dao,
Rachel D Levy,
Kimberly Vermilya,
Corinne E Gustafson,
Gavin Ovsak,
William G Richards,
Raphael Bueno.
BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) have been limited to demographics, symptoms, and laboratory values. We hypothesize higher accuracy using both tumor and patient characteristics. The Mesothelioma Prognostic Test (MPT) and molecular subtype based on Claudin-15 to Vimentin (C/V) expression ratio are molecular signatures associated with survival. Tumor volume (TV) has improved performance compared to clinical staging, while neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is prognostic for MPM.
METHODS: Tumor specimens and clinical data were collected prospectively from patients who underwent extra-pleural pneumonectomy (EPP) or pleurectomy and decortication (PD) during 2007-2014. MPT and C/V ratio were determined by RT-qPCR, while TV was assessed from pre-operative scans. Risk groups were derived from combinations of adverse factors based on the Cox model. Predictive accuracy was assessed using Harrell's c-index.
RESULTS: MPT, molecular subtype, TV, and NLR were independently prognostic in EPP patients (N=191), suggesting equal weighting in a final three-group model (c=0.644). In the PD cohort (N=193), MPT poor risk combined with TV>200 cc was associated with triple the risk compared to other subgroups (hazard ratio=2.94, 95% CI: 1.70-5.09, p<0.001) persisting when adjusted for molecular subtype, NLR, performance status and serum albumin to yield a final three-group model (c=0.641). The EPP and PD models achieved higher accuracy than published models (c<0.584, c<0.575) and pathological staging (c=0.554, c=0.571).
CONCLUSION(S): The novel models utilize pre-treatment parameters obtained from minimally invasive biopsy, imaging and blood tests to evaluate the expected outcome of each type of surgery in newly diagnosed patients and improve stratification on clinical trials.
Keywords: Mesothelioma; Prediction; RT-qPCR tests; Surgery; Survival