Blood Adv. 2022 Feb 07. pii: bloodadvances.2021006889. [Epub ahead of print]
Margherita Maffioli,
Barbara Mora,
Somedeb Ball,
Alessandra Iurlo,
Elena Maria Elli,
Maria Chiara Finazzi,
Nicola Polverelli,
Elisa Rumi,
Marianna Caramella,
Maria Cristina Carraro,
Mariella D'Adda,
Alfredo Molteni,
Cinzia Sissa,
Francesca Lunghi,
Alessandro Vismara,
Marta Ubezio,
Anna Guidetti,
Sabrina Caberlon,
Michela Anghilieri,
Rami S Komrokji,
Daniele Cattaneo,
Matteo Giovanni Della Porta,
Toni Giorgino,
Lorenza Bertù,
Marco Brociner,
Andrew T Kuykendall,
Francesco Passamonti.
Ruxolitinib (RUX) is extensively used in myelofibrosis (MF). Despite its early efficacy, most patients lose response over time and, after discontinuation, have a worse overall survival (OS). Currently, response criteria able to predict OS in RUX-treated patients are lacking, leading to uncertainty regarding the switch to second-line treatments. In this study, we investigated predictors of survival collected after six months of RUX in 209 MF patients participating in the real-world ambispective observational RUXOREL-MF study (NCT03959371). Multivariable analysis identified the following risk factors: (i) RUX dose <20 mg twice daily at baseline, month 3, and 6 (hazard ratio, HR, 1.79, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.07-3.00, p=0.03), (ii) palpable spleen length reduction from baseline ≤30% at month 3 and 6 (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.40-3.65, p=0.0009), (iii) red blood cell (RBC) transfusion need at month 3 and/or 6 (HR 1.66, 95% CI 0.95-2.88, p=0.07), and (iv) RBC transfusion need at all time points, i.e. baseline and months 3 and 6 (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.19-4.54, p=0.02). Hence, we developed a prognostic model, named Response to Ruxolitinib after 6 months (RR6), dissecting three risk categories: low (median OS not reached), intermediate (median OS 61 months, 95% CI 43-80), and high (median OS 33 months, 95% CI 21-50). The RR6 model was validated and confirmed in an external cohort comprised of 40 MF patients. In conclusion, the RR6 prognostic model allows for the early identification of RUX-treated MF patients with impaired survival who might benefit from a prompt treatment shift.